Sur l'intervention de l'état dans le financement du logement

Magri, S. 1972: Politique du logement et besoins en main d'?uvre. Pinçon, M. 1976: Les HLM. Structure sociale de la population logée, agglomération de Paris. Harvey, D. 1973: Social justice and the city Roberts, J. T. 1976: General improvement areas. Farnborough: National Community Development Project 1975: The poverty of the improvement programme. Lindberg, L. N., Alford, R., Crouch, C. and Offe, C. , editors, 1975: Stress and contradiction in modern capitalism. Perlman, J. E. 1976: The myth of marginality: urban poverty and politics in Rio de Janeiro. Granelle, J-J. 1975: La valeur du sol urbain et la propriété foncière: le marché des terrains à Paris.     

Book Reviews

Sumitro Djojohadikusumo, Perkembangan Pemikiran Ekonomi, Buku I: Dasar Teori Dalam Ekonomi Umum [The Development of Economic Thought, Book I: The Theoretical Basis In General Economics], Jakarta: Yayasan Obor Indonesia, 1991, pp. xxviii + 429

Selo Soemardjan, Indonesia: A Socio-Economic Profile, New Delhi: Sterling Publishers, 1988, pp. xi + 162

Australian International Development Assistance Bureau, Australia's Development Cooperation with Indonesia in the Agricultural sector, Volume 1: Main Report, Canberra: AIDAB, April 1991

Colin Barlow, Ria Gondowarsito, A. T. Birowo and S. K. W. Jayasuriya, Development in Eastern Indonesia: The Case of Nusa Tenggara Timur, Canberra: Australian Government Publishing Service, 1990, pp. v + 110

Jan G. I. Palte, Upland Farming on Java, Indonesia, Nederlandse GeografischeStudies 97, Amsterdam/Utrecht: Royal Dutch Geographical Society and Geographical Institute, University of Utrecht, 1989, pp. 256

Thomas Schweizer, Reisanbau in einem javanischen Dorf [Rice Cultivation in a Javanese Village, Köln: Böhlau Verlag, 1989, pp. xvi + 718

Desmond Ball and Helen Wilson (eds), Strange Neighbours: The Australia-Indonesia Relationship, Sydney and Singapore: Allen and Unwin, 1991, pp. xiv + 268. $24.95

The World Bank, Indonesia: Family Planning Perspectives in the 1990s, Washington D. C.: The world Bank, 1990, pp. xxii + 143

Jan Breman, Labour Migration and Rural Transformation in Colonial Asia, Amsterdam: Free University Press for Centre for Asian Studies, 1990, pp. 82, Dfl. 19.50; £9.50

Kenji Tsuchiya, Democracy and Leadership: The Rise of the Taman Siswa Movement in Indonesia, Monographs of the Centre for Southeast Asian studies, Kyoto University, English Language Series, No. 18, Honolulu: University of Hawaii Press, 1987, pp. xv + 230. US$16.00

BRIEFLY NOTED: Simme Veldman, Route Planning in a Centrally Assisted Liner System, Delft: Eburon, 1990, pp. 230

Richard Robinson, Power and Economy in Suharto's Indonesia, Journal of Contemporary Asia Publishers, Manila and Wollongong, 1990, pp. iv + 207     

Inferring fundamental value and crash nonlinearity from bubble calibration

Identifying unambiguously the presence of a bubble in an asset price remains an unsolved problem in standard econometric and financial economic approaches. A large part of the problem is that the fundamental value of an asset is, in general, not directly observable and it is poorly constrained to calculate. Further, it is not possible to distinguish between an exponentially growing fundamental price and an exponentially growing bubble price. In this paper, we present a series of new models based on the Johansen–Ledoit–Sornette (JLS) model, which is a flexible tool to detect bubbles and predict changes of regime in financial markets. Our new models identify the fundamental value of an asset price and a crash nonlinearity from a bubble calibration. In addition to forecasting the time of the end of a bubble, the new models can also estimate the fundamental value and the crash nonlinearity, meaning that identifying the presence of a bubble is enabled by these models. In addition, the crash nonlinearity obtained in the new models presents a new approach to possibly identify the dynamics of a crash after a bubble. We test the models using data from three historical bubbles ending in crashes from different markets. They are the Hong Kong Hang Seng index 1997 crash, the S&P 500 index 1987 crash (Black Monday) and the Shanghai Composite index 2009 crash. All results suggest that the new models perform very well in describing bubbles, forecasting their ending times and estimating fundamental value and the crash nonlinearity. The performance of the new models is tested under both the Gaussian residual assumption and non-Gaussian residual assumption. Under the Gaussian residual assumption, nested hypotheses with the Wilks' statistics are used and the p-values suggest that models with more parameters are necessary. Under the non-Gaussian residual assumption, we use a bootstrap method to obtain type I and II errors of the hypotheses. All tests confirm that the generalized JLS models provide useful improvements over the standard JLS model.     

Why do low-educated workers invest less in further training?

Several studies document that low-educated workers participate less often in further training than high-educated workers. This article investigates two possible explanations: low-educated workers invest less in training because of (1) the lower economic returns to these investments or (2) their lower willingness to participate in training. Controlling for unobserved heterogeneity, we find that the economic returns to training for low-educated workers are positive and not significantly different from those for high-educated workers. However, low-educated workers are significantly less willing to participate in training. We show that this lesser willingness to train is driven by economic preferences, and personality traits.     

Automobile Insurance Contracts and Risk of Accident: An Empirical Test Using French Individual Data

Insurance has for a long time been perceived as a way of transferring responsibility from insured agents to insurers and thus as potentially influencing insured agents' behavior. Two particular opportunistic behaviors have been analyzed. First, the theory of adverse selection predicts that high-risk agents are likely to demand more insurance than are low-risk agents. Second, the theory of moral hazard predicts that the wider the insurance coverage, the less agents will try to prevent accidents. Both theories thus conclude that agents who are totally insured should have a higher probability of accident than those with only partial insurance, ceteris paribus. Nevertheless, one of the aims of insurance rating systems is to control for these opportunistic behaviors. In this article, we use individual data to see if the French automobile insurance rating system has achieved this aim. We do this using a two-step maximum-likelihood method. First, we compute a probit model to estimate the probability of taking out comprehensive versus third-party insurance. We then calculate the generalized residual, which is included as an independent variable in a negative binomial model estimating the probability of having an accident. The coefficient of this variable is argued to represent adverse selection and ex-ante moral-hazard behavior.     

To Acquire,or To Compete? An Entry Dilemma

In this paper we address the following question: is it more profitable, for an entrant in a differentiated market, to acquire an existing firm than to compete? We illustrate the answer by considering competition in the banking sector.     

Food Safety and Adverse Selection in Rural Maize Markets

Without enforced standards or reliable third-party verification, food safety threats such as pesticide residues and aflatoxin contamination are generally unobservable or only partially observable to both buyers and sellers, especially of staple foods in rural maize markets in sub-Saharan Africa. As a result, sellers have more information about food quality than do buyers. Such information asymmetries can impede market development and undermine human health. We study farm household behaviour in the context of imperfect food safety information. We pool observations obtained from 707 food storage containers maintained by 309 farm households in Benin, surveyed following the maize harvests of 2011/2012 and 2013/2014. Our results indicate that when a household perceives a food safety risk associated with application of insecticides, on average it is 33 percentage points less likely to apply insecticides to maize it intends to consume than it is to maize it intends to sell. These individuals are also more likely to sell maize than households without food safety concerns. Results highlight the potential value of improved storage technologies and quality control to promote market transactions and reduce hidden health risks.     

How resilient and countercyclical were emerging economies during the global financial crisis?

By studying the cross-country incidence of the 2008–2009 global financial crisis, we document a structural break in the way emerging economies responded to the global shock. Contrary to popular perceptions, emerging economies suffered growth collapses (relative to the pre-crisis levels) comparable to those experienced by developed economies, even when they continued growing. Afterwards, most economies returned to their pre-crisis growth rates. Although emerging economies were not able to avoid the collapse originated in the U.S. and then transmitted across countries, they were more resilient during the global crisis than during past crises. Namely, they resumed their higher growth rates earlier and converged more quickly to their pre-crisis growth trend. Moreover, breaking with the past, emerging economies did not fall more than developed economies during the global crisis and were able to conduct countercyclical policies, thus becoming more similar to developed economies.